Thursday, January 22, 2009

State of the Union

"The Big Game" is upon us, which means one week too many of overblown hype and storylines that no one really cares about. While everyone else is discussing Kurt Warner's hall of fame credentials, the steak-head in me is focusing more on the league and it's individual parts. I write this will sitting in Terminal C of Boston Logan airport, waiting for my delayed United flight to board, one week after sitting in Terminal A of O’Hare airport, waiting for my delayed flight – so I assure you I’d typically have more to do than come up with this random assessment. But after almost 5 years of being a free man and developing a one-to-one relationship with alcohol and football, it is time for some reflection.


My initial goal was to rank all 32 NFL teams in order of best-to-worst franchises over the last 5 years. What I ended up with was a grouping of franchises into seven categories of quality. I first did this based on perception and memory, then reviewed the records, playoff appearances, super bowl appearances, and titles over that time span. The seven categories:


  • Elite – The premier teams of the era

  • Consistently Excellent – An excellent product year after year

  • Consistently Competitive – A contender almost every season, though a few poor runs or inability to “get over the top” limited them from leaping into the top 2 categories

  • Inconsistently Competitive – The franchise had its moments, but there was just as much bad as good.

  • Non Competitive – Never competed for anything really legitimate, but had a few big upsets or highlight reels to be above the bottom

  • Bad – Awful franchises but not quite….

  • Brown Baggers/Anti Elite – They will also be remembered for years to come, but for all the wrong reasons.
Here are the categories and the teams within them. The teams are listed by overall ranking. Also some general observations at the bottom.

Elite
1) Patriots (63-17, 4, 2, 1) - Colts and Steelers have caught up but still the best.
2) Colts (63-17, 5, 1, 1) - Regular season record and playoff appearances practically perfect; token super bowl keeps them up here, but Manning should have accomplished more.
3) Steelers (56-24, 4, 2, 1) - By punching their ticket last weekend, Pittsburgh moved up a notch to create a trifecta at the top.


Consistently Excellent
4) Giants (47-33, 4, 1, 1) Regular season win count is a little low, but 4 playoff appearances and a super bowl title secures the spot; I'm still skeptical if last year was a magic carpet ride
5) Chargers (54-27, 4, 0, 0) Built well, but couldn't find the proper mix of coaching. Marty great in regular season but playoff choker; Norv putzed through the regular season, pulled a few playoff upsets but ran out of gas.


Consistently Competitive
6) Seahawks (45-35, 4, 1, 0) – 4 Division titles is strong, even if division was weak.
7) Eagles (46-34, 3, 1, 0) - A poor man's Chargers, just couldn't quite get it done.
8) Broncos (47-37, 2, 0, 0) - Clearly, McDaniels' age provides the sex appeal Denver knew it was losing by firing Shanahan.
9) Bears (45-35, 2, 1, 0) - Defense is better at whining and cashing paychecks than playing.
10) Jags (45-35, 2, 0, 0) - Del Rio has weekly nightmares about Peyton Mannning
11) Panthers (45-35, 2, 0, 0) - Solid team but lacking token Super Bowl run (last one missed cut, 6 years ago)
12) Cowboys (46-34, 2, 0, 0) - Don't overrate America's team just because of their marketability.
13) Ravens (44-36, 2, 0, 0) - This might be my new favorite NFL team behind the Bears.

Inconsistently Competitive
14) Packers (41-39, 2, 0, 0) - Brett Favre set this franchise back*. Cheeseheads who worship him unconditionally are ignorant, fat, and pathetic.
15) Vikings (41-39, 2, 0, 0) - Brad Childress is an awful coach, without Purple Jesus they wouldn't be over the love boat scandal.
16) Titans (40-40, 2, 0, 0) - A poor man's Bears.
17) Bucs (38-42, 0, 0) - Just a weird, unpredicatable team. They can beat anyone and shit the bed against anyone.
18) Falcons (41-39, 0, 0) - A product of two eras (Vick, Ryan) with an awful year in between.
19) Jets (37-43, 2, 0, 0) - If these guys sign John David Booty, they'll be in good shape.
20) Bengals (38-42, 1, 0, 0) - Only the Bengals could produce such pathetic results with so much offensive talent.

21) Cardinals (33-47, 1, 1, 0) - The Cardinal's Super Bowl appearance is akin to Smar's fantasy championship
22) Saints (36-44, 1, 0, 0) - Been better since Brees arrived, but not as much as you think.
23) Redskins (38-42, 1, 0, 0) - Speaking of Smar - Snyder is the real-life Madden GM.


Non- Competitive
24) Chiefs (32-48, 1, 0, 0) - Franchise is falling away from relevancy
25) Bills (35-45, 0, 0, 0) - Dick Jauron aka "Mr 7-9" provides the ultimate blue balls for Buffalo fans*
26) Dolphins (31-49, 1, 0, 0) - They'll be okay until Pennington's arm falls off.
27) Texans (31-49, 0, 0, 0) - They should be on the way up...but something tells me they won't be.

Bad
28) Browns (28-52, 0, 0, 0) - Cleveland deserves better than this
29) Rams (27-53, 0, 0, 0) - Just another gimmicky dome team, except much worse.
30) Niners (25-55, 0, 0, 0) - I see Singletary turning into the Scott Skiles of the NFL.


Anti-Elite
31) Raiders (20-60, 0, 0, 0) – They'll remain here until Al Davis dies.
32) Lions (21-59, 0, 0, 0) - Detroit has managed to do this while playing in a subpar division, thus they take the basement room.


League Observations

1) The only way to become an elite or excellent franchise is to have consistency at QB
All teams from the top 2 levels have had consistency at the QB position over the last 5 years, while 6 of 8 from the third level have had this. This doesn't necesarilly mean the same QB over the past 5 seasons, it just means when the starter was entrenched he wasn't challenged on a weekly basis (Denver with Plummer to Cutler, Cowboys with Romo to Bledsoe). Only the Bears and Ravens have managed to be consistently competitive with more than 2 QBs having started a good chunk of games. Conversely, only 5 teams Inconsistently Good or worse (Packers, Saints, Rams, Falcons, and Bengals) have had constency at this position over this period of time.


2) The NFC has been a puddle of mediocre parody, while the AFC has been polarizing
75% of the NFC teams (12) fall into the third and fourth categories. Not sure what this means - but if anything, 12 fan bases have had something to chear about over the last 5 years. I may have elevated the G-Men based on the title, but for the majority of this time frame they've made a baker's dozen here. All in all it comes out to mediocrity but unpredictable. The AFC has been like clockwork - the Pats and Colts are great, the Browns and Texans suck.


Personal Riffs
Herm Edwards got away with highway robbery by getting the Chiefs gig - Five years ago, the Chiefs would have been on the Consistently Competitive list. For some reason Herm Edwards was brought in and has dropped them two levels - and the fall hasn't stopped. The Chiefs are quickly headed for "Bad" territory

Brett Favre set the Packers back by 5 years - The numbers don't lie - he hasn't been good at all during the stretch of time. I don't want to hear about his 2007 season either, as I remember him throwing up wounded ducks to Giant DBs late in the NFC playoffs that year. Of the 5 teams mentioned at the tail end of point 1, only the Packers were led by the same QB at least 4 of the years and didn't miss significant time with injuries.


Lovie Smith and Donovan McNabb get ridiculed way too much - I know I'm coming across as a reverse racist Chicago homer right now - but Lovie's been able to churn out a competitive team with crap at the quarterback position, which goes directly against the trends seen in the NFL. On a national level, you rarely here a QB more often criticized than McNabb, yet his team is always in the hunt. The old man from #3 gets a pass while McNabb get dumped on; incredibly stupid. I'll also shoutout to Brian Billick for the same reason as Lovie.


Dick Jauron is not a top 5 coach - A certain sports personality, on a certain radio station, who coached a certain 2nd grade DYBA Cubs team to the championship in 1990, is wrong. Unless you're into going 7-9 or elevating expectations only to have the results fall flat, Dick Jauron is not a top 5 coach.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Picks from Peter Kings Ass, Vol 2.CC

Since I've been as bad as Bill Simmons in picking games this post season we'll see if I can't redeem myself this weekend.

The Super Bowl is going to be a battle of the Keystone State.

I like:
Philadelphia -4.5 @ Arizona
Baltimore +6 @ Pittsburgh

I think Baltimore will cover but will not win outright.

Friday, January 9, 2009

Picks from Peter Kings Ass, Vol 2.DP

Divisional Playoffs:
Baltimore +3 @ Tennessee
Carolina -10 vs. Arizona
NY Giants -4 vs. Philadelphia
Pittsburgh -6 vs. San Diego

I also like a 4-team teaser with all the home teams.

KB

Saturday, January 3, 2009

Picks from Peter Kings Ass, Vol 2.WC

Well it's Wild Card weekend. 4 games, 4 road favorites. Tough to say if the home teams will show up this weekend. We could get Old Kurt Warner or Slow Donovan McNabb so who knows what could go down this weekend, it wouldn't surprise me to see the home teams win a few outright.

Frankie's Picks
Atlanta Pick @ Arizona
Indianapolis -1 @ San Diego
Miami +3 vs. Baltimore
Minnesota +3 vs. Philadelphia