- SEC 9-1
- Mtn West/WAC 4-1
- Big 10 3-7
- ACC 1-6
Picks
Rutgers +7.5 @ UConn
I'm leading off with the Knights again after they took care of business last week. This is a team on the rise (winning 5 of 6) led by a solid D and an improving young quarterback. It's hasn't exactly been profitable to bet against UConn this year (7-0) but they have to lose ATS once - right ?
USC - 3 @ Oregon
The winner of this game takes the Pac-10, and there hasn't been a better program in the country in games like this over the last decade than the Trojans. The Ducks can run the ball but they're going up against a challenged and extremely talented USC defense. USC's running backs should be able to get theirs against an underwhelming Ducks front. On intangibles alone, I'm playing the Trojans until they're dethroned as Pac 10 dictators.
Florida -14.5 vs. Georgia
The Gators have been keeping things close lately, but let's not forget this is still the best defense in the country and the offense isn't too far behind. Tebow has gotten his mistakes out of the way the past few weeks, and he'll be back to his crisp self. This isn't Stafford's Georgia, Joe Cox is makeshift at best and this isn't one of Richt's better teams. Gators control this one from the start.
Nebraska - 13 @ Baylor
The Huskers have laid two eggs in a row and here's assuming that Bo Pelini isn't going to allow a 3rd. The defense is still absurdly good, and shouldn't have much issue with a Baylor offense deep in the red. An easy road game is just what Nebraska needs right now to get back on track for the rest of the season.
Duke +7.5 @ Virginia
Thus far David Cutcliffe's Blue Devils have been the one team exempt (2-0) from my ACC curse. Couple that with an on-fire Thad Lewis, a touchdown and a hook and I like my chances of going 3-0. If this season is anything like last for Groh, the Cavs are heading downhill towards another poor ending.
Michigan -7 @ Illinois
We'd all be closing on summer homes if we'd just followed our gut and bet against Zook this season, but I'm thinking the ship hasn't sailed. This team is in dissarray, and are already preparing for next year. Michigan isn't there yet with the top of the class in the Big 10, but they've got a lot to prove and you know how Rich Rod feels about the spread.
Indiana +17.5 @ Iowa
I never thought the day would come where I'd be promoting the Hoosiers, but I've won games on Florida International and Western Kentucky so maybe the time has come. Indiana's not nearly as pitiful as usual (5-2 ATS) and will bring their A-game to Kinnick to take on the beaten up Hawks. Iowa won't get fancy with this one and will be glad to do the minimum and put this one in the rearview.
Georgia Tech -12.5 @ Vanderbilt
It's been a long season for the overwhelmed Commodores and it's not about to get any easier with the triple option coming to town. One week won't be enough for the defense to prepare, and even if they play well Vandy's offense won't be able to move the ball, which they've struggled to do all year. Dwyer and company roll on this business trip.
Cal -6.5 @ Arizona State
Since taking dual shelackings from USC and Oregon and dropping off the map, Cal has gotten themselves together and knocked around UCLA and Washington State. Jahvid Best and company are playing like the Top 10 team they were when they started the season and should be able to continue to hot streak against Arizona State.
Houston -6.5 vs Southern Miss
Keenum, at home, one score? This is Houston's year, they're not going to let Southern Miss spoil the party.
Off the Record
SMU +650 @ Tulsa
Ah, the irony. I'm fairly sure my nemesis will somehow find a way to blow this, but SMU can legitimately win this game, and there's not many payouts like this where that's the case. Turn $30 into $200, you've got nothing to lose.